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Development of an open framework for a qualitative and quantitative comparison of power system and electricity grid models for Europe | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/development-of-an-open-framework-for-a-qualitative-and-quantitative-comparison-of-power-system-and-electricity-grid-models-for-europe/

The ongoing needs to develop power systems towards more environmentally friendly technologies with respect to climate change in conjunction with the continuous evolution of the respective market conditions is leading to a transition away from the traditional system operation. The upcoming challenges have motivated the development of an increasing number of models for transmission grids. Nevertheless, the high complexity of such models renders it exceedingly difficult to compare their results as well as any corresponding conclusions. In this paper, we develop an open framework to compare a variety of pan-European transmission grid models with a strong focus on the German power system. The comparison is performed in both a qualitative and quantitative manner, depending on the investigated modeling aspect including input data, methods, system boundaries and results. The quantitative model comparison is done by performing harmonized model experiments, one for 2016 as back testing and one for 2030 for analyzing the future system. Core elements of our comparison framework are: We proved that our comparison framework is suitable to make similarities and differences between the different model results visible, e.g. using quadratic heat maps. To ensure transparency and to support the open modeling community, the fact sheets with the model specifications and the database with selected model results are uploaded on the open energy platform.
Publikationen Energiewende und Klimapolitik Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

Banning boilers: An analysis of existing regulations to phase out fossil fuel heating in the EU | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/banning-boilers-an-analysis-of-existing-regulations-to-phase-out-fossil-fuel-heating-in-the-eu/

In view of the current geopolitical situation, the EU and its Member States are accelerating efforts to reduce their dependency on fossil fuel imports, while simultaneously tackling the climate crisis. With heating in buildings accounting for a large share of the energy consumption in the EU, policies to phase-out fossil fuels for heating and to switch to renewables are key elements. In the context of the proposed actions to phase-out fossil fuels at EU level, this article provides a systematic analysis of current and planned phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU Member States. The paper quantifies the share of energy consumption for heating that is addressed by such regulations and finds that the current regulations only address about 10% of the total fossil energy consumption for heating in the EU. The share increases to almost 30% when considering the planned regulations, reflecting the fact that large energy consumers such as Germany and the Netherlands have announced such regulations. The analysis shows that several Member States with high energy consumption for heating have neither implemented nor announced plans to introduce phase-out regulations for fossil fuel heating. The study concludes that immediate policy action is needed both at EU and at Member State levels. At EU level, the proposed introduction of an end-date for stand-alone fossil fuel boilers needs to be substantiated and implemented into the legislative framework. At the national level, phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers need to be expanded both in quantity and scope.
heating in the EU 04.09.2023 Publikationen Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

Closing an open balance: the impact of increased tree harvest on forest carbon | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/closing-an-open-balance-the-impact-of-increased-tree-harvest-on-forest-carbon/

Fossil-based emissions can be avoided by using wood in place of non-renewable raw materials as energy and materials. However, wood harvest influences forest carbon stocks. Increased harvest may reduce the overall climate benefit of wood use significantly, but is widely overlooked. We reviewed selected simulation studies and compared differences in forest carbon and amount of wood harvested between harvest scenarios of different intensities for three different time perspectives: short- (1–30 years), mid- (31–70 years), and long-term (71–100 years). Out of more than 450 reviewed studies 45 provided adequate data. Our results show that increased harvest reduces carbon stocks over 100 years in temperate and boreal forests by about 1.6 (stdev 0.9) tC per tC harvested (referred to as carbon balance indicator (CBI)). CBI proved to be robust when outliers explicitly influenced by factors other than changes in the harvest rate, such as fertilization or increase in forest area, were removed. The carbon impacts tend to be greatest in the mid-term, but no significant difference in was found for average values between short and long time-horizons. CBI can be interpreted as carbon opportunity costs of wood harvest in forests. Our results indicate that even after 100 years, CBI is significant compared to the typical GHG credits expected in the technosphere by avoiding fossil emissions in substitution and increasing carbon stocks in harvested wood products. Our estimates provide typical values that can directly be included in GHG balances of products or assessments of mitigation policies and measures related to wood use. However, more systematic scenarios with transparent information on influencing factors for forest carbon stocks are required to provide better constrained estimates for specific forest types.
on forest carbon 11.06.2022 Publikationen Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

Building a Common Support Framework in Differing Realities – Conditions for Renewable Energy Communities in Germany and Bulgaria | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/building-a-common-support-framework-in-differing-realities-conditions-for-renewable-energy-communities-in-germany-and-bulgaria/

The revised EU Renewable Energy Directive first introduced renewable energy communities into the EU policy framework and requires Member States to implement a support framework for them. Given the broad scientific evidence showing the benefits of community energy for a just energy transition, a successful implementation across all Member States is essential. However, the preconditions for developing support frameworks differ largely between EU nations, as some countries have long-term experiences with supporting renewable energy communities (i.e., Germany and Denmark), while in other Member States, renewable energy communities are notably non-existent (i.e., Eastern European nations). With the purpose of providing scientific evidence to support the development of a policy framework for renewable energy communities in Eastern European Member States, this article compares key factors for the development of such communities in Bulgaria and Germany, combining a literature review with expert interviews to collect primary information on Bulgaria. A country analysis puts these factors into the contexts of both countries, while a cross-country comparison demonstrates that there are significant gaps in the support framework of Bulgaria, although these gaps are, to a lesser extent, also present in Germany. We discuss these shortcomings, derive policy recommendations and identify further research needs.
Communities in Germany and Bulgaria 02.08.2021 Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

Advanced nuclear fuel cylces and nuclear waste disposal | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/advanced-nuclear-fuel-cylces-and-nuclear-waste-disposal/?tx_form_formframework%5Baction%5D=perform&tx_form_formframework%5Bcontroller%5D=FormFrontend&cHash=23de1f4b6d4e3202105cda6cd0b8a785

Proceedings of the INMM & ESARDA Joint Virtual Annual Meeting August 23-26  &  August 30-September 1, 2021. Extracting transuranic elements from nuclear waste (partitioning – P) to burn them in dedicated nuclear reactors (transmutation – T) essentially holds the promise of reducing the one-millionyear risk of highly radioactive nuclear waste disposal. That would solve one of the main conundrums of nuclear energy production. Here, we argue that P&T will not significantly change the safety requirements and risks of geologic disposal for spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste. We will assess the maturity of P&T technologies such as reactors, separation technologies and fuel fabrication plants. A sensitivity analysis will be presented on the time scale and effects of a P&T treatment of nuclear waste fuel cycle choices like fast reactor, molten salt reactors or accelerator driven systems. This will include an estimate of the number of required fuel cycle facilities, and the composition of the final waste stream, depending on separation and transmutation efficiency, irradiation and cooling down times and the build-up of problematic fission products with very long half-lives. We compare homogeneous P&T strategies with improved proliferation resistance and heterogeneous P&T strategies with different actinides being treated separately in a more flexible fuel cycle design.
disposal 01.09.2021 Publikationen Nukleartechnik & Anlagensicherheit Bücher

Germany’s Agricultural Land Footprint and the Impact of Import Pattern Allocation | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/germanys-agricultural-land-footprint-and-the-impact-of-import-pattern-allocation/?tx_form_formframework%5Baction%5D=perform&tx_form_formframework%5Bcontroller%5D=FormFrontend&cHash=8cb8667d774f1687d64b500a54f711dd

Footprints are powerful indicators for evaluating the impacts of a country’s bioeconomy on environmental goods, both domestic and abroad. We apply a hybrid approach combining a multi-regional input-output model and land use modelling to compute the agricultural land footprint (aLF). Furthermore, we added information on land-use change to the analysis and allocated land conversion to specific commodities. Using Germany as a case study, we show that the aLF abroad is 2.5 to 3 times larger compared to impacts within the country. When allocating land conversion of natural and semi-natural land-cover types in 2005 and 2010 to import increases by Germany, conversion rates were found to be 2.5 times higher than for the global average. Import increases to Germany slowed down in 2015 and 2020, reducing land conversion attributed to the German bioeconomy as well. Our results indicate that looking at a static import pattern is not sufficient to draw a realistic picture of the land footprint of a country. For a more detailed assessment that also considers temporal dynamics and impacts of biomass use and trade, our newly developed set of indicators also captures changes of import patterns over time. The case study shows that our enhanced land footprint provides clear and meaningful information for policymakers and other stakeholders.
Pattern Allocation 23.12.2021 Publikationen Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

Germany’s Agricultural Land Footprint and the Impact of Import Pattern Allocation | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/germanys-agricultural-land-footprint-and-the-impact-of-import-pattern-allocation/

Footprints are powerful indicators for evaluating the impacts of a country’s bioeconomy on environmental goods, both domestic and abroad. We apply a hybrid approach combining a multi-regional input-output model and land use modelling to compute the agricultural land footprint (aLF). Furthermore, we added information on land-use change to the analysis and allocated land conversion to specific commodities. Using Germany as a case study, we show that the aLF abroad is 2.5 to 3 times larger compared to impacts within the country. When allocating land conversion of natural and semi-natural land-cover types in 2005 and 2010 to import increases by Germany, conversion rates were found to be 2.5 times higher than for the global average. Import increases to Germany slowed down in 2015 and 2020, reducing land conversion attributed to the German bioeconomy as well. Our results indicate that looking at a static import pattern is not sufficient to draw a realistic picture of the land footprint of a country. For a more detailed assessment that also considers temporal dynamics and impacts of biomass use and trade, our newly developed set of indicators also captures changes of import patterns over time. The case study shows that our enhanced land footprint provides clear and meaningful information for policymakers and other stakeholders.
Pattern Allocation 23.12.2021 Publikationen Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

German Energiewende—different visions for a (nearly) climate neutral building sector in 2050 | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/german-energiewende-different-visions-for-a-nearly-climate-neutral-building-sector-in-2050/

In order to contribute to the German Energiewende (energy transition) adequately, the building sector has to be almost completely decarbonised in the long term. Our analysis investigates how the German building stock can be transformed into a nearly climate-neutral state by 2050. Using a stock modelling approach based on a typology of the German residential and non-residential building sector, we develop different visions (target states) of what a nearly climate-neutral building stock could look like. All developed target states achieve the overall goal of reducing the non-renewable primary energy demand in 2050 by at least 80%. In order to span a broad target corridor, the target states differ in the two central target dimensions: efficiency (reduction in final energy demand) and energy/technology supply mix (especially the herein contained share of renewable energies). Additionally, using the energy system model REMod-D, the interactions of the building stock with the energy system as a whole are investigated. We explore the differences between a target state focussing on efficiency measures and a target state where efficiency is partly compensated for by an increased use of renewable energies. We learn that from a private cost perspective no clear recommendation can be derived as to which target state should be given priority. This means that other criteria become more relevant, such as social acceptance regarding the different measures, or the challenges that arise from rolling out additional renewable energy capacity on top of what is necessary to achieve the climate goals in other sectors.
Publikationen Energiewende und Klimapolitik Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

How to include cooling in the EU Renewable Energy Directive? Strategies and policy implications | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/how-to-include-cooling-in-the-eu-renewable-energy-directive-strategies-and-policy-implications/

The EU Renewable Energy Directive (RES-Directive) establishes a policy framework for the promotion of renewable energy in the EU. Under the framework of the RES-Directive, EU Member States have adopted national renewable energy action plans including sectorial targets for electricity, heating and cooling, and transport. While the RES-Directive outlines the methodology for calculating the renewable energy shares for electricity, heating and transport, it does not offer any indications on how to account for renewable cooling. Due to the lacking methodological guidelines, Member States can currently not report renewable cooling and cooling does therefore not play a role for target achievement. At the same time, the energy demand for cooling is growing rapidly and the inclusion of renewable cooling can potentially have a large impact on the renewable energy shares that Member States report. Based on an overview of available cooling technologies, this article explores various strategies for including cooling in the RES-Directive and investigates the impact on target achievement. We find that the potential impact of including cooling is considerable and conclude that ambitious minimum efficiency requirements are needed in order to maintain the ambition of the RES-Directive and to stimulate the development of policies to support low-carbon cooling technologies.
Strategies and policy implications 13.03.2019 Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher

Identification of potential areas for biomass production in China: Discussion of a recent approach and future challenges | oeko.de

https://www.oeko.de/publikation/identification-of-potential-areas-for-biomass-production-in-china-discussion-of-a-recent-approach-and-future-challenges/

A standard methodology is needed to recognize potentially suitable areas for sustainable bioenergy crop production. This facilitates better identification of promising crops and cropping systems, logistical and economic studies, and work needed to meet regulatory criteria. A possible approach is built upon three layers of internationally available spatial data: (1) degrading and abandoned areas, (2) potentially suitable land cover classes, (3) exclusion zones such as nature reserves and areas of high biodiversity. For China, areas identified as potentially suitable range from 1.2 to 6.0% of the national territory, depending on different levels of statistical confidence in degrading area status and allowable limits of terrestrial carbon. Verification on the ground showed that about 60% of points tested conformed to the remote suitability assessment in the scenario, which represents the results for the combination of all degrading areas and a terrestrial carbon stock limit of 200 t ha−1. A top-down approach is useful in framing potentially suitable locations, but a complementary bottom-up analysis is still required to ultimately identify areas for sustainable bio-fuel production.
Publikationen Energiewende und Klimapolitik Energie & Klimaschutz Bücher